I read through the non paywalled link and I couldn’t find any info on if this analysis adjusts for inflation or not. 17 times larger (before inflation possibly) seems so ripe for cherry picked data points in the name of sensationalism, that I wanted to confirm this one idea, and I didn’t. Did anyone else find anything like that?
It’s not a bubble, it’s something way worse - “the reduction of the employee cost burden”
AI exists to allow wealth to access skill without allowing skill to access wealth.
Hyper-local renaissance is the only answer. Get to your village and out of the city while you still can.
The crash is going to be spectacular.
As someone that has been through both of these crashes, 17 times the size of the .com bubble is really, really bad. I don’t think we can even conceive of how big a hole this is going to make.
don’t worry the military tech bubble will get it covered)
jokes aside - i’m working in consulting and lots of those AI startups are straight up money laundering operations that don’t really need neither market research nor talent pool studies - pretty much everything is for show and next to zero real longterm planning. A rude awakening is long overdue for these hotshots.
One time I had a misfortune to ask what one of these startups is going to do when their product will fail to gain traction (it was yet another grammar check sentence finishing app like Grammarly) - how are they gonna pivot and their CEO laughed at me and said “we are going to work hard to make it a success” which is like super stupid thing to say when your project is in the superoversaturated market affected by cost of living crisis with customer engagement on a consistent decrease for the last 3 years and your product costs almost the same as the market leader but is also way worse.
Ever since the 90’s, I’ve often wondered if some of these bubble companies are just the living end of the “eat the rich” philosophy. I can see no more practical a way to achieve this, than to convince investment capital to empty their wallets, funneling it straight into the pockets of dozens if not hundreds more people. It’s hardly Robin Hood, but it’s also cash that’s no longer hoarded at the top.
Plus, we also know that a worthwhile goal is to not go the distance, but simply become a tasty snack for a bigger company before you go bankrupt. This lets your flimsy business model and weak patent portfolio become someone else’s problem.
it is like that with a lot of Ukranian startups - hotshot all the way then sell off and it fucks shit up for others who actually want to turn their startups into a long-running expanding businesses.
A genuine stock market collapse would be very interesting
It’s ok the stock market isn’t the economy and everyone will be fine would you like to open a few hundred wells Fargo chase CITIZENS accounts preloaded with the presidential collection of crypto including 500 newly minted “Barons” ?
The cool thing about inflation is it hides shitty stock market performance.
The greater the inflation, the more stocks and GDP go up!
The Chinese and Indians are watching what is happening and busting their guts out laughing.
AI: Actually Indians
All these built out data centers are going to be eye sores when they go bankrupt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsE0BwQ3l8U&t=1492s
More of the same. I can’t wait to check out from society and specifically the tech world.
And yet, the MBAs continue to pump money into it like AI doesn’t fail to provide any value in 80% of their shoehorned implementations.
Everybody thinks they’ll be able to time their exits perfectly or near so, and it will be somebody else left holding the bag - in other words they’re ridding the bubble as high as it will take them but ready to jump off when it starts to wobble.
On past experience (having gone through 2 big crashes within the respective industries), the most professional of investors (such as Investment Banks) will probably manage it, the rest not so much, especially Retail Investors.
Even then some of the professionals will get nuked as well, frankly speaking it’s the cautious, experienced, and old who will handle this best those who have seen the previous ones in some way be it with their own eyes or through history who will get out.
It’s wild how many good uses of this tech there are, and how it’s mostly implemented in asinine ways, instead. It’s great for brainstorming. Not so great for customer fucking service.
AI is taking customer service jobs by storm because 80% of the tasks they do are answering the same questions over and over for Grandma who can’t remember how to turn on the TeeVee.
I guess that’s true. Customer service has almost never been able to actually help me, even before.
80?
I feel like that number is way over 90, 95
Because it’s the only growth area. Speculators need to speculate. There’s money to be made on a bubble on the way up, and tons on the way down, as long as you time it right
Next bubble gonna be 64× ?
Good one 😂
quite an upgrade from the 32 bits
it’s going to be pretty cool when the USD is annihilated by this
they really boned themselves by concentrating all of it among themselves and basing its value off of fake proof of work factories
I’m sorry that i must inform you that the world today is one big pot. The 2008 crisis created by the USA housing bubble, affected the whole world. An USD annihilation today after a big bubble burst, means total collapse.
If the USD is annihilated the great depression will look like nothing. Breton Woods ended but America is still smack dab in the middle of everybody’s economy. It’s why no one is calling in their debt, but keep buying it. It’s a fucking global ponzi scheme.
Edit: I just looked it up and 88% of global currency trades involve the dollar.
Its the reserve currency of the world. The only thing that could replace it today is the yuan, which China is absolutely prepared for when that day comes.
The euro could also replace it, but would need additional changes from the governing body of the EU first as its meant to be an amalgamated currency and cant produce enough to be a reserve currency at the moment.
Neu-tronenbommenstickers op m’n nieuwe tas gaan plakken
Ya know I get tell this is some variant of a Germanic language but for the life of me all I’m seeing is the tongue of Rlyeh.
What about The BRICS currency that’s being worked on?
BRICS is in many ways a relationship of convenience… there are too many competing interests to truly make a whole currency the global reserve
The rest of the world is unfortunately not immune to US problems. What inevitably happens is the bubble pops, the government prints money to bail out the gamblers who benefitted from the bubble, then insist on austerity for regular people to get the resulting inflation under control
Yeah, but if that wild money printing turns out to be the coup de grace on the status of the USD as the World’s Reserve Currency, it will just make things worse as such an event comes with its own “bubble bursting” that will massively fuck up holders of USD (such as Americans, but also anybody who didn’t exit the USD on time).
The status of the USD as Reserve Currency is already pretty shaken as the EUR and other currencies have increasingly become part of the currency reserves in most countries, replacing the USD, and Trump’s antics have convinced other countries to accelerate their plans to move away from using the Dollar in international trade, most notably China.
The technique of printing lots of Dollars is nowhere as safe now as it was back when it was used to paper over the problems from the 2008 Crash.
Also depending on how bad the whole situation could get it could legit implode the federal government as a whole. I really don’t see the feds under Trump doing even the bare minimum that was Hoovers anti-depression policy which while the absolute minimum was enough to keep the states from effectively becoming completely autonomous, and even then California, Louisiana, and the Alaska territory were effectively independent in a lot of ways.
Yeah, all manner of otherwise unthinkable outcomes are possible with that mix of an Economic shit-storm due to the USD losing its Reserve Currency status and rule by an ultra-Cronyist Loyalty-above-all extremely incompetent Administration.
It’s like a kindergarten: if there’s a fire and the teacher is in, it will get sorted out (or at least nobody is likely to be hurt), if the teacher has stepped out of the room so there’s only 3-year-olds “in charge” but there’s no fire, it would be ok, but if the teacher has stepped out of the room so there’s only 3-year-olds “in charge” and there’s a fire, the outcome is almost certainly going to be very very bad.
Some kind of ultra nasty outcome is highly likely, though I wouldn’t bet on which specific ultra nasty outcome will be the one that happens.
Bubble scientists need to adjust for inflation.
This is insanity.
The dotcom bubble produced Google and Amazon.
I guess, if you count surviving it and having less competition. What did 2008 produce? Besides a stock reset for the rich.
It was a completely different world having several different search engines. Felt like you were actually on a discovery path. These days Google funnels you into Amazon products listings.
Yeah the one thign ai consistrntly does well is return more targeted search results than a browser.
WAAAAY back in the day, search engines functioned like a complicated Yellow Pages with indexed results and explorable categories. They encouraged you to find unique websites and seek out new perspectives and ideas. It wasn’t sustainable due to the volume of websites people make, but it was fun.
Search engines have been hot garbage for a while. If AI can at least shake that up, it would at least provide some competition and reason for these companues to try and innovate something.
They received hundreds of billions of dollars in bailout funds. That really taught them a lesson!
Should have pulled themselves up by their bootstraps and saved for emergencies.
Maybe they ate less Avocado toast and that helped already.
The “too big to fail” banks used their bailout money to buy small and medium-sized banks that were struggling, increasing the market share of the already colossal banks that caused the disaster in the first place.
Also Beanz.
Winner takes it all, we need to pump MORE money into it.
/s
