Logi

There you go conflating Jews and Israel. Apart from that you have an arguable point.

No, please don’t split the vote against FPTP. That’s how you get more FPTP.

Probability is useful because it can make predictions that can be tested against reality.

Yes. But you’d have to run the test repeatedly and see if the outcome, i.e. Clinton winning, happens as often as the model predicts.

But we only get to run an election once. And there is no guarantee that the most likely outcome will happen on the first try.

That’s not exactly what happened. Starlink was already disabled in Crimea when the attack was launched and Musk refused to enable it specifically for the attack. Then the initial reports got a bit tangled up.

But yes, none of this should be up to Musk.

Twice around the hickenloop.

Canyank?

As she should.

That’s just not true. Go to https://ev-database.org/ and compare the dry weight of the different models. You don’t add 66kg going from standard to long range in software.

We have them in Torino in Italy where I now live. There are a lot more than I would have expected.

What’s the over/under on how close that gets to being distributed before being destroyed by the most ethical army in the world?

But don’t get complacent. It’s possible the polls this year are over-correcting for that. We won’t know for sure until the election is over.

Not only that. You may need a quite healthy margin to overcome the various voter suppression and other plans the Rs have in place to steal the election. A Texas sized margin might do.

If I remember this correctly, the square of the error for the sum of (or difference between) two independent measurements is the sum of the squares of the individual errors. Gauss something.

That would make the error for the 8 point swing be sqrt(2×3.8²) or about 5.4. So at least the swing is significant in each state.

Also, the error for the average of 3 variables is sqrt(e1²+e2²+e3²)/3 or 2.2 so the average lead in the 3 states is significant.

But we can’t make a significant claim about the lead in each state.

The republicans pretend to be smart? IDK?

That’s because the “Did Vote Too” vote is split by the two parties. Clearly we need one of them to drop out to defeat the real enemy.

Edit: although the real real enemy is FPTP and the EC which is the root of all this nonsense.

Can confirm.

Source: married to journalist who counts down the hours and triple checks the time zone math to avoid this.

I don’t actually see an argument anywhere? Just an observation, so the downvote confuse me. Is everyone on a hair trigger because of all that manufactured controversy?

She’s also got tan lines that would make a cyclist proud while blonde needs to get out more.

Yeah, massive amounts of exercise without a massive increase in consumption will work. But people act as if you can go for a jog 3 times a week and that will take care of it.

(also your last sentence is mangled)

500 though? If you spread it out of 2 hours, its hardly anything at all. When I commuted by ebike daily, I was probably burning double that 6 days a week compared to driving and it felt very casual.

“probably”. Like most people, you are severely over estimating what you burn. This morning I cycled 40km without assistance and climbed 500m along the way. It wasn’t my hardest workout ever, but not “very casual” either. That was 850 kcal.