- cross-posted to:
- world@quokk.au
- cross-posted to:
- world@quokk.au
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/73158617
Burn baby burn!!!
“Many in the market feel we have no choice but for it to work out,”
Yes this is what it everyone feels like when they are in denial…
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Will there be a lot of tech layoffs Monday?
“Spikes hope”, you mean
Don’t tease me
People looking forward to this don’t realize how much all of us will get so fucked by an actual implosion.
It won’t be Musk, Altman, etc who really suffer.
Also, a few tech stocks went down in the day’s trading, but even those are up (way up) YTD, so I guess we’ll see what happens.
The longer the scam goes on, the more it hurts everyone. The sooner it pops, the better.
Yeah, probably true. There is a way a responsible admin might try to orchestrate a softer landing. The assholes in this administration are not the least bit responsible.
I’m just remembering two things:
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The people that could not wait for the dot-com bubble to burst. That was extremely painful in the job market if you were even tangentially related to dot-com.
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Same thing for people that could not wait for the inflated house prices to drop. Also, extremely painful, for nearly everyone.
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Yeah, I don’t know if “fear” is really the right word here… more like “anticipation”
Rip :(
Baited even!
Many are now asking whether this hyperscale approach — in which tech monopolies build massive, energy-intensive data centers to fuel AI demand — is a sustainable approach, compared to one which deploys efficient and lightweight models for a fraction of the cost.
For many investors at this point, the hyperscale approach simply has to work
If they just believe hard enough it will come true and it will be their Xmas miracle.
I very much doubt hyperscalers make much sense in the long term. I have no idea what the financials are (or what insider financial scheme they have cooked up).
But when you experiment with smaller models on very much consumer hardware - Macbooks for instance - or when you look at how costs per 1M tokens has dropped over the years, I don’t see how this massive, massive buildout makes any sense. When I hear Elon talking about building “compute in space” as almost a foregone concusion I wonder if he’s not running a super-scam or if he has a head injury.
They’ve been pushing for the government to take a stake in AI companies so that when they go bankrupt it’s no longer a private sector issue and they can justify a bailout. I am strongly against the government or taxpayers being involved. The AI should stay completely private sector so that when they go bankrupt they get NO BAILOUTS.
The bubble is always Wall Street
If that bubble ever bursts i want more ethical AI models and approaches.
All we’re gonna see is bailouts, consolidation, and the rest of us lose our savings.
I could see both. If the AI bubble really pops, used hardware may be available for pennies on the dollar. People and companies may be able to run local models for much less.
But yeah, I could see a lot of us hurting in other ways, even if models get more efficient and more local.
If we see that, we need to see gun ownership and armed protests rise.
Not if you start shorting now. Trust me, nothing can go wrong with a safe short.
1970s: Microwaves are the stoves of the future!
2010s: The Metaverse is the future!
2020s: AI is the future!
AI is not going away any more than the Internet did after the dot-com bubble when booooom.
But most people use microwaves 50 years later.
No one ever believed in the Metaverse except one very rich weirdo. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies were the 2010s’ really big hype wave.
I think people were making fun of the metaverse pretty much the day of the announcement.
Heck, it was already beaten to the punch by VR Chat and arguably 2nd Life eons before. He clearly just needed some ‘big new concept’ to pitch to investors about how they could 10x in two years after FB users flatlined
What I found bizarre - and I didn’t see anyone commenting on this, although I can hardly be the only one that noticed - is how much the character design reminded me of the Wii aesthetic? Not really sure why.
Also, it was not even an original name. I realize most of these asshats lift most their ideas from sci-fi, but since I actually liked fiction like Snow Crash, I was annoyed by that, as well.
Microwaves have been immensely successful though. In some countries >95% of all households have one. In the US they’re more common than cable TV ever was. They went through a boom in the 1980ies where that number shot up from 10%-ish to 80%-ish. If AI is like microwaves it’ll be considered essential in another 10 years.
If microwaves are the analogy for AI then I’m good with it. In my house today I have an oven, a stovetop, a counter top toaster oven/air fryer thingy, and a microwave. Each serves its own purpose but none replaces the other completely.
If in the future AI is a tool that sits and waits it’s turn for me to use it for the thing it is best at then I think it will have a place.
If instead it costs a subscription fee, is forced into every other appliance, replaces jobs en mass, and accelerates the downfall of the climate I’m gonna pass.
microwaves are tools, but they are in no way a replacement for the stove.
what are you guys making for dinner tonight?
I got some ribs and over done steaks from my aunt I’ve had boiling in tomato sauce all day, it’s going make some awesome spaghetti sauce!
Tuna salad sandwich with one regular slice of bread, one butt slice, from a bag I accidentally left open yesterday. I need to go shopping pretty bad…
I had sushi, it was wonderful. But my wonderful partner made 15 bean soup for the week and it came out so good. Andouille and Italian sausage and lots of pepper and tomato. Just perfect.
I feel like 15 beans would barely do one meal for one person, not a whole week for two.
looks like AI is slowling leaking out from the cyst rather than bursting.
Deflating the balloon is a way better scenario than a pop. Fingers crossed.
I’m not really seeing a bloodbath, S&P 500 still up more than 10% YTD.
If that is a bloodbath then what term are they going to use for an actual crash?
As the ponzi scheme gets larger, it becomes more sensitive to small changes.
The AI sector has suffered losses to the tune of 20-59% over the last month or so.
Yes some of them are still up YTD (some are even down YTD), but at the same time, the situation in 1929 was similarly less bad looking if you started from January of that year, but the graphs showing how bad it was in practice always start in September.
Sensational clickbait slop.
I sincerely hope that a few of the fascist tech bros get absolutely obliterated. If all of them were gone with the snapped of a finger the world would instantly be a better place.
I doubt it. I could see something like OpenAI and Anthropic bought up by someone else. Google, MS, Oracle?
I doubt any of these people will ever miss a meal or have no roof over their head.
Even if these people were to be worth 1/100th of what they are worth now, they’d still be plenty comfortable.
If we have a revolution and round capitalist class up and arrest them the world will be instantly better
By ‘obliterated’ you mean ‘bailed out’ right?
I don’t think a bail out would work (which isn’t to say the Trump administration won’t try it - you can never confidently predict they won’t do something stupid). If they can’t work out how to make a profit after $2T of capex, more money on the furnace isn’t going to help.
As much as the bank bailouts after 2008 left a bad taste in my mouth, banks are at least self evidently a profitable business that were able to successfully use the bailout to stay afloat.
I could potentially see the AI companies’ creditors getting a bailout but most of them seem to be private equity so a bailout would be really unpopular (although see my above comments on not betting against the current US leadership doing something stupid).
On the bright side, there’s a real chance we could see Larry Ellison go personally bankrupt. He lives on loans secured against Oracle shares and Oracle is currently indebted up to its eyeballs and borrowing at basically junk rates. If it goes down, those loans get called and he eats shit (to the delight of Sun Microsystems fans everywhere).
you can never confidently predict they won’t do something stupid
I’d argue you can predict they will do something stupid because that’s basically all they’ve done ever since they took office
What would that mean for Skydance?
Ideally it all gets sold off to pay debts, but the funniest thing would be that its forcibly liquidated after creditors get to the copper sniffing crack head stage of debt repayment and the whole things gets torn apart.
