• 0 Posts
  • 83 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: July 17th, 2023

help-circle

  • Confused. It says she has less than a 50/50 shot at winning the electoral college, but then “a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College”

    I’m not a statistician, but what fucking math is showing any reasonable chance that Harris loses the popular vote? Because that’s the only way that math checks out.

    Electoral win: 0.473

    Electoral loss: 1 - 0.473 = 0.527

    Electoral Loss + Popular Win = 0.17

    I can’t lookup the formula right now, but this indicates that the chance of Harris losing the popular vote is significant