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Cake day: October 16th, 2025

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  • Betting markets aggregate the opinion of people who make bets on them, weighted according to how much they bet. They are not an estimate of the likelihood of an event happening. This is a common misconception about how they work.

    If they took bets from a representative sample of society and everyone bet the same amount, it’d be an aggregate opinion of the public, which is a pretty good way of trying to estimate such likelihoods (using the Wisdom of the Crowd principle) but this is not what they do.